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Virtually unlimited mobile in England from UK Broadband
Written by Dave Burstein   
Tuesday, 20 March 2012 02:48

Huawei MiFi120 MHz means finding customers, not capacity, is the problem. Philip Marnick has enough spectrum to offer 5-10x the capacity of Verizon's LTE network, probably more than the total deployed by all the other British carriers combined. In theory, with good outdoor antennas that’s enough spectrum for a gigabit per cell using LTE Advanced. Intially, Marnick is deploying something closer to 60  megabits over a single 20 MHz carrier but he’s ready to quickly triple that.  

    By going to high frequencies (3.5 and 3.6 gigahertz), UKB was able to get a swath of contiguous spectrum rarely matched in the developed world. Clearwire in the U.S. has done similar and also has enough potential to change everything if the other carriers with them.

   UKB is wholesale only and the obvious first prospects will be existing carriers with a capacity crunch. They put their first towers in London and intend a “smart build” based on where they have customers. Any interested carrier can simply identify what parts of London they need more bandwidth. UKB will be able to massively increase any carrier’s capacity as fast as they can turn up the necessary towers.  

    UKB claims this is “the first TD-LTE 3.5GHz deployment in the world” and start-up problems are inevitable. Verizon, “America’s most reliable network” has recently seen three huge network outages despite using the more developed FD-LTE. What UKB has now is a “technology demonstration” although they hope to offer live service within 90 days. With TD-LTE rollouts moving fast in Australia, Russia, India and the U.S. (Clearwire), everyone will be watching the early results.

   This high capacity LTE is particularly interesting for rural areas with very slow broadband or none at all. LTE at Verizon, the largest deployment so far, is fairly reliably delivering 5-12 megabits. But first generation LTE networks, working in 10-20 MHz, have severe capacity limits and typical caps of 10-15 gigabytes, maximum. The speed is fine, but you can't watch much TV or otherwise heavily use the service. 40-60 MHz provides far more capacity, which increases more than proportionately. Rural areas are by definition low density, so the capacity for each user could be far higher.

    Hundreds of MHz are unused in virtually all rural areas, plenty for a robust mobile offering. Most places that would mean 10's of megabits of speed, dozens of gigabytes before a customer reaches the cap. What this requires is reallocating the unused spectrum to a large block for rural use. Much of the spectrum is in use in some urban areas and those who have a government monopoly for that use continue hog it even in areas they aren't using the spectrum. "Use it or lose it," as recommended by FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein and top Wall Street analyst Simon Flannery, is the obvious way to drastically improve rural broadband.

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Divide to Conquer: 3 LTE iPhones not 1 model for the world
Written by Dave Burstein   
Tuesday, 21 February 2012 02:17
lte-frequency-fragmentationA World iPhone? Fuggedaboutit. There will be separate versions for Asia, Europe & U.S.. Each will work as 3G iPhones while visiting other parts of the world. 3GPP defines 25 different frequency bands to fit the spectrum owned by carriers in different countries, with different bands chosen by each country/carrier. 
    A world iPhone would be a half-inch or more longer than a regional model. For each of 10-15 bands, the phone would require saw filters and other passives. It would be bigger, heavier and a battery hog.Neither Steve Jobs nor Tim Cook would accept that choice. 
    Verizon is using 700 MHz; Deutsche Telekom 800; AT&T 850; Sweden 900; Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom 1800, and TeliaSonera 2600. Much of the spectrum coming to the European market will be around 900 MHz. Japan uses 1500 MHz and 2300 MHz. The U.S. is looking at 1900 and others. 
ifixit_iPhone_teardown    Hundred of engineers worldwide are working to reduce the size of the passive components and combine them into efficient modules. Software defined radios are still too large and power hungry. Barring a virtual miracle, no appropriate multi-band technology will be ready for the first iPhone due near the end of 2012. Few expect that to change for years. 
    Apple as usual is mum on the subject.  
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Correction: Per AT&T CTO, wireless growth did not fall to 30-40%
Written by Dave Burstein   
Tuesday, 14 February 2012 19:11
Donovan now says 2011 growth was 100%. Update: CEO Stephenson apparently presented as total wireless demand a figure for the increased usage by an existing iPhone owner, per leak to WSJ. Original: I'm withdrawing my story about AT&T wireless growth falling to 30-40%, which was based on a statement by AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson and factchecked with AT&T twice. It corresponded to another statement to investors from divisional CEO John Stankey, a former CTO. However, CTO John Donovan in a new posting writes "the year-end numbers show a doubling of wireless data traffic from 2010 to 2011." There is no plausible way traffic could have doubled in 2011 and the growth rate dropped to 30-40% in January of 2012. Donovan works directly with the traffic figures, so presumably has them right. The CEO story had been covered repeatedly by other media, so presumably they didn't issue the correction without careful checking.
     CEOs make mistakes, even on the intensely checked financial calls. I apologize for my error. Interestingly, Donovan also refers to the Cisco VNI study, which predicts U.S. wireless data growth will fall by half but not for several years.
AT&T's Randall & Stankey: Wireless data growth half the FCC prediction  (Withdrawn)
Written by Dave Burstein
Friday, 27 January 2012 14:01
40%, not 92%-120% “Data consumption right now is growing 40% a year,” John Stankey of AT&T told investors and his CEO Randall Stephenson confirmed on the investor call That’s far less than the 92% predicted by Cisco’s VNI model or the FCC’s 120% to 2012 and 90% to 2013 figure in the “spectrum crunch” analysis. 
 
NetZero: Free 200 meg mobile, $9.95 for 400 meg
Written by Dave Burstein   
Tuesday, 20 March 2012 02:43

netzeroMust buy $100 MiFi hotspot or $50 USB stick. Carry a 4 oz MiFI and you get 400 megabytes of 4G WiMAX for $9.95 - or 200 meg free for 12 months. AT&T charges $20 for 300 megabytes of iPad data and you still have pay retail for the equipment, including $129 for the LTE. Top up any time for $7 (250 meg) or $20 (1 gig) whenever you need it. This is ideal for anyone who wants occasional cheap connections when not in reach of a mobile hotspot, assuming you stay mostly to the 80 major cities covered by Clearwire’s service.  (map below)
    Speeds are “up to 10 megabits” but users can self throttle the speed to 1 megabit so as not to use their entire monthly allowance in a few minutes. NetZero is open that this is not “replacement for wired Internet service like DSL or cable.” At $20/gigabyte, video costs $10/hour and even music over a buck per hour.
     NetZero pays Clearwire ~$7/gigabyte for the service, so will have reasonable operating margins at this price. They’ve been around over a decade and still bring in about $100M/year from a $9.95 dialup service. Those revenues are dropping 25%/year and they never could get workable deals on unbundling DSL or cable. So the mobile is make or break for the company.   
     If Lightsquared hadn’t been blocked, prices even lower than NetZero/Clearwire would soon be appearing.

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Lightsquared Lawsuit: On the law and the facts, chance of $billions
Written by Dave Burstein   
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 14:52
Never did interfere with GPS band. Phil Falcone may lose another $3B, but he's a loudmouth and no one feels sorry. His only obvious recourse is a $20B lawsuit against the FCC for denying him the legal use of his licensed spectrum. An independent engineer I respect evaluated Lightsquared's technology and concluded they've effectively prevented any interference with signals in the GPS band. 
    The problem was defective GPS receivers that didn't filter out signals in other bands, Most of them were sold after 2005, when the FCC suggested they would allow broadband signals in adjacent bands. Brendon Sasso has the facts straight "Testing showed that LightSquared's signal did not bleed into the GPS band. Instead, the problem was that GPS receivers were too sensitive to filter out LightSquared's powerful cell towers operating on nearby frequencies." 
     There's 40 MHz of spectrum of someone else's spectrum that the GPS industry is demanding be dedicated to an unofficial "guard band" because they didn't put some inexpensive filters in their gear. Lightsquared offered to leave 3/4ths of the spectrum fallow and cut power in half on the remainder, which would have protected the vast majority of devices in use. Julius still thinks getting more spectrum out is critical but lost on this one. Verizon and AT&T are cheering because they don't want any spectrum at all for anyone else.
    There's nothing in law or FCC regulations requiring a new guard band but Larry Strickling forced Genachowski to leave the spectrum fallow. While the press kept reporting "Lightsquared interferes with GPS," the FCC engineers knew otherwise and had recommended putting the spectrum to use. FCC lawyers knew their legal position would be very tricky to defend if they denied the petition. 
      The wasted spectrum is enough to replicate Verizon's LTE network, for now the finest network in the world. 
 
 
500 Insiders answer key mobile questions
Written by Dave Burstein   
Wednesday, 08 February 2012 02:00
small_cells_60_preferred_informa
Yes to small cells, maybe to landline data substitution, chaos on bandplans. The industry is moving on from towers to small cells, more than 61% of 500 industry executives agree in an Informa study. Only 14% disagree, the balance are unsure. Free Mobile is pulling down the French prices partly because their "bottoms-up" network featuring femtos and WiFi is much cheaper to run. For Britain's regulator OFCOM, Simon Saunders has just done a study calculating small cells cut in half the cost of rural deployments. Almost all the engineers directly involved in designing networks having been moving away from towers and the 3GPP standards since at least 2009 have focused on small cell deployments. Policymakers are starting to understanding that sharing spectrum, including WiFi, often yields 3-10 times as much capacity. Monopoly spectrum bands are increasingly obsolescent.
     LTE_versus_fixec_informa Some people will forget DSL and cable and go mobile only for data. LTE is delivering 5-12 megabits pretty consistently, faster than much DSL. That includes most of Africa, India, and Indonesia where landlines are few. In developed coutries, it's still unclear whether only a few (5-10%) will forego landline data, an important segment (?10-25%) or even more. 2 gigabyte wireless caps limit you to an hour a week of decent video, but some people only need email, Facebook, and occasional web searches. 17% of the Informa sample thought "LTE will heavily substitute fixed broadband." 25% believe "LTE will substitute fixed broadband in only limited segments." The balance are in between. Even limited substitution means little if any landline broadband growth in the developed world. Some countries, including Italy last quarter, actually went negative. 
     62% of the industry expects more consolidation. Only 15% think we'll see more competition. Nearly all regulators are basing their plans on competition increasing; if the industry is right, they will continue to fail. Networks have enormous economies of scale and it's hard to launch against them.
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Cisco Data: No spectrum crunch in 2016 and unlikely in following years
Written by Dave Burstein   
Sunday, 26 February 2012 07:35
Cisco-VNI-Average-speedsConnection speeds will increase rapidly to 6 megabits. Mobile technology continues to improve at a fantastic rate. Speeds are going up incredibly rapidly despite a huge growth in traffic. Cisco’s VNI, the best public data, measured average U.S. connection speeds going from 596 kilobits in 2010 to 1.14 megabits in 2011 as smartphones and 3G took oer the market. They project average actual speeds of 1.71 in 2012, 2.48 in 2013, and 3.53 in 2014. By then, the strong majority of connections will be smartphones. 
    Although some speculate mobile will be hitting a wall because of spectrum pressure, Cisco sees continued rapid growth in 2015 to 4.92 megabits and in 2016 to 6.78 meg. If there were even a hint of a spectrum crunch in 2016, speed increases would be fading. Cisco’s projection of continued rapid speed increases in 2016 (the last year they project) implies they don’t expect spectrum to be a major limiting factor until well after 2016.
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How AT&T got from 30-40% to 100%
Written by Dave Burstein   
Tuesday, 14 February 2012 21:26
Takeaway: wireless growth dropping. AT&T's CTO John Donovan announced that wireless data use on AT&T's network went up 100% in 2011 from 2010, contradicting his boss' comment that growth was 30-40%. Randall was using a figure for the growth in usage for an average iPhone user, although his context and statement read otherwise. I apologize for reporting the latter figure. It was fact-checked as well as confirmed in a prior investor comment from divisional CEO John Stankey, an ex-CTO. 
      The takeaway is that AT&T's mobile data growth rate is dropping dramatically and may well be below Cisco's 50% prediction for 2016. We're still in a one-time shift to everyone having smartphones, which is driving up growth rate but will inevitably fall away. AT&T's base was 57% smartphone at the beginning of this year so there's only limited room for higher smartphone take-up to drive up the numbers.
      Getting to 100% smartphone use evenly over three years would raise the 30-40% per user increase to 55-65% in total for 2102, a dramatic drop from 100%. Total growth would be 50-60% in 2013 and would continue dropping to 30-40% in total soon after. Machine connections would tend to raise that, but most M2M devices only use modest amounts of data.    
         AT&T is apparently also throwing in WiFi traffic to bring up the number. Tim Farrar notes "One factor appears to be that AT&T’s blog post is apparently obfuscating the issue by changing its definition from 'mobile data' (in March 2011) to 'wireless data' (in the current blog post). In other words, AT&T’s WiFi offloading (at Starbucks, Times Square, the Superbowl, etc.), which is helping to drastically reduce the growth of (on-network) 'mobile data' traffic, is presumably now included in their statistics." Randall was talking about current rates (is) while Donovan's new numbers go back 12 months (was). That's also part of the discrepancy. 
        Apples to apples, applying the new data point suggests  AT&T growth rates are down about 30% in the last 12 months. 
 
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