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Saturday, 21 August 2010 14:01 |
Harold Feld, one of the half-dozen best in D.C. on most issues, surprised me by saying BTOP is "actually working to create jobs and infrastructure for the future." BTOP refuses to provide a supportable estimate of how many jobs are being created and most of the projects cover territories that already have all the fiber they need. Sure it's great they are running fiber to more schools and creating a little more competition in a few areas. But overall the results just aren't there and they are holding back the facts praying no one notices before 2014. Harold was the first in D.C. to say publicly what everything is saying behind Julius' back. "“ I never thought I’d miss Kevin Martin, but . . . .”. I had a piece in draft but Harold's and Stacey Higginbottom's blog Genachowski, Man Up! said it first. When I say something in D.C., I make a point of posting it on my website in the spirit of disclosure. Here's the comment I left for Harold.
Harold
It's worth looking again at the evidence that has convinced you that BTOP is effectively creating jobs and infrastructure. The infrastructure is nearly all overbuilds where there is plenty of fiber in place already, sometimes as many as six providers. NTIA is not extending connectivity to unserved areas by any measure, even though that's the first goal of the stimulus.
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Saturday, 14 August 2010 11:26 |
Posted by Alan Davidson, Google director of public policy and Tom Tauke, Verizon executive vice president of public affairs, policy, and communications
The original architects of the Internet got the big things right. By making the network open, they enabled the greatest exchange of ideas in history. By making the Internet scalable, they enabled explosive innovation in the infrastructure.
It is imperative that we find ways to protect the future openness of the Internet and encourage the rapid deployment of broadband. Verizon and Google are pleased to discuss the principled compromise our companies have developed over the last year concerning the thorny issue of “network neutrality.”
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Tuesday, 10 August 2010 17:39 |
 Sharon Gillette, FCC Wireline Chief, blogged about the recent 706 report and asked for "comment on how we can sharpen our analysis and make the best use possible of our data." The U.S. is down to 5-10M unserved, which means the 2-5M "black swans" that may not be counted are a major issue. So I wrote in the comments:
The 706 report conclusions are right on target, but there are several improvements possible to improve the data.
In particular, one to three million homes only can get satellite because of local network conditions such as pairgain equipment or remote terminals that have not been upgraded. I believe most of these homes are not included in the current analysis.
In addition, major cable operators have about 1M homes that cannot get cable modems. They have refused many requests to identify which homes they are and why they remain unserved. The broadband plan was not able to get the data either.
As we get closer to universal coverage, these "black swans" have become a huge percentage of the "unserved," probably 25-50%.
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 17:36 |
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 Imagine if five new networks with the capacity of Verizon's were built across the United States. Canadian wireless prices are dropping 10-15% because of new entrants. Xavier Niel's fourth French mobile net will bring down prices 17%, Merrill Lynch estimates.
The heart of the plan is freeing more spectrum to bring in competition, with 300 MHz expected by 2015 and 500 MHz by 2020. Letting Phil Falcone's Harbinger use satellite spectrum for terrestrial as well, an AWS-3 auction, and other moves already under way will bring in 100 MHz, more than enough for 3 new Verizon-sized networks. That can be huge, if new entrants can succeed in taking major market share from AT&T and Verizon. More spectrum is not guaranteed to work – V & T are at 60+% and pulling away – but politics excluded any of the more effective moves. Although The FCC has apparently lost on using the 10 MHz 'D' block and some of the plans like relocating TV stations have issues, even half of what the plan asked could be huge.
Verizon's LTE network, one of the best wireless networks in the world, is running on 20 MHz of spectrum. CTO Dick Lynch is confident he will soon bring 5-12 megabits down to 92% of the U.S.. The broadband plan determined that the coverage could be raised to 97-98% at manageable expense. Engineers tell me both goals are realistic.
Wireless is shared and the total capacity limited. As a practical matter, that means the network breaks if many people want to watch lots of quality TV. But the capacity is pretty darn good. Back of the envelope, a 2015 LTE network probably would allow most people to do all the surfing they wanted and watch 5-15 hours/month of video.
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Thursday, 15 July 2010 00:01 |
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Dr. Touré certainly does not believe the Wikipedia page for the ITU should read like their pr person wrote it, but that's what I found July 15th. I didn't change the substance but I edited out puffery like "most influential representatives," "most respected and most influential" and "diverse and far-reaching" and "ideal forum." Much of that may be true, but the way to prove it is by concrete examples, not propaganda. I also edited out as less important an advisory board membership of the Chief, Media Relations.
Common stuff, but the talk page revealed that two months ago someone made similar edits because the article seemed "Straight from the ITU's PR department?" Those edits were reverted
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Friday, 20 August 2010 00:00 |
Massachusetts' Wired West 30 August 2010
A well-organized regional group has brought together 24 cities to consider a project to extend the NTIA funded backbone to all their homes. Several senior technical people are involved. Verizon wanted to sell Western Massachusetts and held off deploying even basic DSLAMs until the state got involved. Even before the latest 11,000 layoffs, the state has been holding hearings about poor Verizon service.
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Wednesday, 11 August 2010 15:18 |
Tamia True's proposal to review the results of the NTIA Broadband stimulus is thoughtful and right on target. If delivered to specification, it will be one of the most carefully done studies of any broadband program in the world. The contractor must produce "a report of sufficient methodological, theoretical, and pragmatic rigor to withstand critical scrutiny by technically proficient practitioners, ... Given the nature of the data involved, the Contractor should anticipate employing both quantitative and qualitative methods." I've pasted in below the 31 page statement of work that demands a high standard of analysis.
Broadband policy to date has been shaped by a series of "studies" that fall apart when anyone competent takes a look at them. Nearly all are funded by the companies wanting government money or favors, especially Verizon. They are garbage in, garbage out quality work that have generally been discredited whenever examined by independent scholars. Nearly all are post hoc and some are so bad as to be downright fraudulent.
The evidence has become almost overwhelming that most projects to encourage people to take broadband have almost no effect unless they bring down the price. There's an army of middle class people looking for federal money to explain to poor people how broadband will change their lives and why they should pay the carriers $400-500/year. I've asked nearly all the top officials whether they've seen any of those programs that significantly affect broadband adoption.
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Sunday, 01 August 2010 19:07 |
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The $2M silver tongues have been meeting with the top of the FCC for weeks to reach a compromise among themselves, with public interest types screaming about deals being done in the dark. Dave Kaut reported on Friday special weekend meetings at the FC, , I confirmed and then sent this note to many concerned and reporters who cover D.C.Later Friday night someone I trust told me things were still open. Writing Sunday night I have no word on what went down, but as a tech reporter in New York I wouldn't expect to know if they decided to keep it quiet while they defuse opposition.
I want to repeat that it's only opinion that the proposed compromise is mostly a fig leaf. The rumored details include loopholes broad enough to ram through 350 channels, but that is not confirmed.
Folks
Word from D.C. getting around fast
A major meeting of all the lobbyists is happening over the weekend with the FCC to cut a final deal on Net Neutrality. (97% sure Stifel prime source)
Insiders say that there's at least a 50% chance a deal will be reached, because most of the power players are ready to deal. (informed opinion)
The "compromise" will contain details that make the result purely symbolic and essentially a fig leaf. (opinion, I think well informed). Rahm Emanuel, pushed by Seidenberg, has put serious pressure on.
The bells have already got what they really want and then some, I believe, so unless they are unusually pigheaded they will cut the deal. (possible, but they are smart and want to get it done.)
Action item: The only thing likely to stop a deal is if Julius is afraid all the progressives will stand together and object vociferously. That could alienate the democratic base. something he might not right before the election.
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Implication, unproven but likely: If you don't want a compromise that makes the bells happy, those in favor of net neutrality need to immediately unify and get their message to Genachowski.
Whether jumping in is worth it or not I leave up to you. Personally, I was hoping things would stay quiet for a while. |
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Monday, 26 July 2010 15:52 |
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(Folks. Consider this an unfinished draft. I wanted to get the basic facts out. I posted it as is pending improvements. Ideas welcome.) I discovered several anomalies in the details of the 706 report, none of which invalidate the conclusion. Mark Wigfield is right "in terms of giving us a snapshot of availability in the US, and zooming in as much as possible to the local level, this 706 Report is a giant step forward from past reports."
The FCC 's main conclusion is the U.S. is doing a terrible job reaching the last 5-10% of homes. Britain has been at 99% for years, including Scottish islands and Welsh highlands, proving what's possible. Anyone who knows the data - especially the near freeze at most carriers the last several years - acknowledges the U.S. is doing a terrible job connecting the last ten million or so homes.
Lobbyists screaming "but we're good to the other 90% or 95%" haven't read the law and probably haven't bothered to look at the last few years. Section 706 requires the FCC to report "the availability of advanced telecommunications capability to all Americans." In elementary school they taught me all is 100%, not 95%. Not even a $2M/year D.C. silver tongue can convince me otherwise.
All the public evidence suggests that carriers serving 60-80% of American homes virtually stopped extending their deployment early in 2009 or before. Carrier after carrier cancelled orders for equipment. They thought it would be stupid to spend their own money when the government might pay in the stimulus and now USF. (They usually ignore the clauses in the stimulus bill that money cannot be spent where the carrier would already be building.) It's becoming far worse in 2010 as they smell more money from "USF Reform."
There are several items important to anyone who wants to understand how to bring broadband to those without. They imply the real figure for unserved could be 60-100% higher than the 5% figure the broadband plan developed.
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Friday, 09 July 2010 12:27 |
 Canada's CRTC http://bit.ly/ap7a3c isn't as dumb as U.S. regulators who are considering ruling that the law doesn't apply where the telcos oppose it. (Title II deregulation) Canada just decided wireless needs to follow the rules. In turn, the CRTC intends to make sure the rules are reasonable. Rather than saying “never any rules,” they instead try to write sensible ones.
They've required the carriers to clearly inform customers about throttling. That's under consideration in Britain and the U.S. as well, but probably in a meaningless fashion. The minimum disclosure should inform users about how many hours/month they are affected and how much users are slowed down, but the FCC is allowing telcos to say “sometimes we throttle” without the details needed to determine if it's negligible or abusive.
Comcast currently throttles far fewer than 1% of users and then only to a speed of 7 megabits, faster than most DSL connections. They rarely do that for more than 15 minutes. If that were clearly disclosed, most of the criticism would disappear. |
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